Trendfinder Trading Systems

Trendfinder’s emini futures trading systems did not have any closed trades today.

It was a week for the record books. Volatility exploded higher on Monday – by far the largest ever one day move for the VIX. The S&P 500 went from an all time high to a 10% “correction” in the shortest amount of time ever. I know the losses can be overwhelming, but I invite you to hang tight and let the systems work. These systems have historically done well in volatile markets after the initial plunge causes losses. I foresee 2018 being a choppy market (which should bode well for swing trading), and volatile (which should bode well for daytrading). Of course, there is no guarantee that this will occur, but I am confident that disciplined systematic trading will fare better than emotional trading.

MeanSwing II and SentSwing II were stopped out of long trades. Many intraday systems had trades with mixed results.

Trendfinder’s emini futures trading systems did not have any closed trades today.

SentSwing II was stopped out of long trades in the ES and NQ (ES for small gain/breakeven, NQ for max loss). 3 intraday systems had short trades and profited.

Several intraday systems had short trades.

Lion II Vol and Lion III Vol each had a short trade today.

MeanSwing II and SentSwing II were stopped out of long trades today. Today may go down as an historic day. It will certainly be remembered for years to come. It felt like 2008, the flash crash in May 2010 and/or late summer 2011 etc., but today was more surprising. The previous selloffs had economic/bankruptcy/macro/etc. reasons (there was something people were clearly reacting to where the future was in question). Today, there wasn’t anything like that. Earnings are growing and overall the economy is sound. Yes, valuations are high, and yes, interest rates are moving up and inflation is coming alive, but boy, this is quite the reaction! The VIX more than doubled today, and it looks like the ETF XIV (inverse VIX) and possibly others are being liquidated. On a percentage basis, the market was down around 4% – that may seem big but it isn’t even in the top 100 down moves. Keep calm and prosper.

FedSwing RTY (Russell 2000) and all of the SentimentSwings exited profitable short trades this week. SentimentSwing ES (S&P 500) also had a losing long trade. Lion III Vol had several daytrades and ended the week with a loss.

This week, and especially today, had the largest selloff we have seen in a very long time. The likely triggers were rising interest rates, a more hawkish Fed and Greenspan saying stocks are in a bubble. And with the large run-up recently people are scared of losing their profits (also they’ve seen what has happened to crypto currencies and don’t want to have that happen to their equities). I could pontificate all day about what caused the selloff, will it fall more next week, will it rally next week, did the FBI memo have anything to do with it, did the FOMC balance sheet reduction cause this, etc., but I will instead keep working hard to create robust trading systems and trade them in a disciplined manner. And I will keep an eye on all that “stuff” to make sure the trading systems offered are a good fit for the current and foreseeable market environment.

Starting Monday, the new Portfolio compositions will go live. FedSwing, FedSwing II and SentimentSwing will no longer be offered and tracked here. SentSwing II and SimpleSwing will be added.

SentimentSwing ES (S&P 500) was stopped out of a long trade. Lion III Vol had a profitable short daytrade (A & B didn’t trigger).

It was a very whippy/choppy/up & down day in the market. Lion III Vol original and B had whipsaw losses (A had no trades).