Trendfinder Trading Systems

Similar to last month, the swing systems had a loss overall, and the daytrading systems had a nice profit.

The swing systems had some big losses, and the intraday systems had nice profits.

I don’t know what it is about February, but this is the 4th year in a row with losses overall for these systems. In case you are wondering, every March for the last 5 years has been profitable (and almost every April).

The bad news is that overall it was a losing month for these systems. The good news is that it was a profitable month for the new systems being released now. All brokers now have the SentSwing II and SimpleSwing systems and will likely start trading them next week.

This is the last month I will be posting results for FedSwing, FedSwing II and SentimentSwing. Going forward, SentSwing II and SimpleSwing will be added. SimpleSwing is currently in a long trade, and after it exits I will start tracking the new portfolio compositions. The website has already been updated with the new systems and portfolios – check it out! FYI, you may need to fully refresh (shift + F5) to see the new systems and updated graphics.

SentimentSwing had two winning trades (one short, one long), MeanSwing II had one trade (winner in RTY), and FedSwing/FedSwing II had mixed results. Almost every portfolio was profitable this month.

2017 was a poor year for some of the systems. I’ve already made improvements to SentimentSwing. The long exit and the short entry was adjusted, and additional data streams to measure sentiment were added. The new system will likely be called SentSwing II. I haven’t released it yet because I am still working on a new swing system and want to release them together and revise the systems used in the portfolios (SentSwing II will replace SentimentSwing and the new system will replace FedSwing). I am hopeful this will be completed within the next few weeks.

Continuing the same theme this year, MeanSwing II had a profit and the other systems had a loss.

I am in the process of finalizing new and modified swing systems. I will be revising the systems used in the portfolios. FedSwing will probably be retired.

MeanSwing II had a gain, but the other systems that traded had a loss for the month.

Volatility dried up again in September and is at historical lows. For example, the VIX closed the month at 9.51, and the highest close of the month was 12.23 (9/5). By several measures, this was the least volatile September ever. This is quite remarkable! We’ve had tough trading conditions for several months in a row now. I never enjoy losing periods, but now is probably a good time to start trading these systems or increase allocations. I know it is hard to do, but isn’t it that way most of the time in trading?

This ended up being the most actively traded month this year for Trendfinder’s systems. Two swing systems had a profit, one daytrading system was very active and ended about breakeven, and the rest of the systems that traded had a loss. MeanSwing II had its first losing trade in 18 months. What really threw a wrench in the swing systems were the missile launches by North Korea. They spiked prices down (and volatility up) for a very short time, triggered stops or exits/reversals, then the market went back to its normal flow. Unfortunately that is a part of trading.

In September, there could be heightened volatility due to 1) an FOMC meeting where they may announce the actual start date of the balance sheet reduction (instead of just saying what they plan to do), 2) debt ceiling politics (Trump tweets anyone?), and 3) any more posturing from North Korea (fire a missile that flies over Tokyo?). And, of course, something else could happen not mentioned here. Or, September could end up being a non-event, the VIX is back to single digits, and all of the stock market indices make new all time highs. If the latter happens then trading will be light.

Trading was light this month. FedSwing and FedSwing II each had one win and three losses. SentimentSwing had a profitable trade in every market. Almost all of the portfolios ended with a small gain.

July 2017 may go down as an historical month based on the lowest levels of volatility ever seen.

There were a handful of good trades this month, but the rest were losses.