Trendfinder Trading Systems

“Don’t fight the Fed” may be something you have heard at some point.  It appears to be a good adage to follow.  After observing the market’s behavior during QE1 and QE2 I started research into this (see this post).  FedSwing is a result of that research.

FedSwing is a swing trading system that is counter-trend in nature and is used for stock indices.  It will not go long when the Fed is selling and will not go short when the Fed is buying.  It uses a stop-loss that is the smaller of a volatility based stop or money management stop ($3000 for stock index futures).  It is being offered for trading the S&P MidCap 400 (EMD), S&P 500 (ES) and Russell 2000 (RL).  It can be traded on the Dow (YM) and Nasdaq (NQ), but because of their low contract size they aren’t worth trading in my opinion even though they have profitable results on both (I’ve removed YM and NQ from MeanSwing II as well) .

FedSwing is uncorrelated to the MeanSwing II systems (5 year correlation ranges from -0.15 to 0.16) and has very low correlation with the intraday systems (5 year correlation ranges from -.07 to 0.41).  This makes it a very nice fit in the Index Trader portfolios!

For 5 year performance information please go to the website pages for Systems or Portfolios.

To give you the most recent results, here is the performance for each FedSwing system and the updated Index Trader portfolios:

The Leopards were the only systems to trade today.  They went short and exited with a loss.

Every system had a gain this week except the Cougars.

FYI, I will be releasing a new swing system next week.  It is called FedSwing.  It uses the advice of “don’t fight the Fed”.  More details to come…

Lion was the only system to trade today.  It had an unprofitable long trade.

There were lots of profitable trades today.  Every intraday system except the Cougars had a profitable long trade.  MeanSwing II exited profitable long trades in 4 markets.

Most intraday systems went long today for a small profit.

Almost every intraday system had a short trade today and exited with a small win (and very small loss for Lion II Alt).

Trendfinder’s emini trading systems did not have any trades today.

Three systems had a gain this week and seven had a loss.  My indicators show volatility is starting to increase – if volatility does increase then the next few months should have good results.  Of course there is no way to know the future, but I do suggest looking forward not backward.

Leopard II went short and had a nice profit.