Trendfinder Trading Systems

Almost every system and portfolio ended the month with a profit.

Every portfolio was profitable this month. Overall only two trades ended with a loss (FedSwing TF and Lion II Vol each had 1 losing trade).

There was only 1 daytrade in June. With the recent jump in volatility there may be more daytrades in July.

With very low stock market volatility, there were very few trades this month. However, all but one was profitable.

FedSwing and FedSwing II had mixed results this month. With the very low volatility there were no day trades.

Every portfolio had a nice profit, and almost every system was profitable.

FedSwing and FedSwing II exited a short trade for a loss. Several intraday systems (in the Index Trader Portfolios) were active early in the month and each was profitable, making up for some or all of the swing losses.

It was a profitable month for every swing system and portfolio.

Most swing systems and all but one intraday system were profitable this month. This led to almost all of the Index Trader portfolios ending with a profit, and the majority of Index Swing portfolios ending with a profit.

FedSwing had a losing short trade in all markets. MeanSwing II had a winning long trade in the Russell 2000 (TF).

October was very volatile with market action unlike any past period I remember or could find. That includes 2008, flash crash, August 2011, etc. (and if you know any period where we had two V-bottoms in a 3 month span please let me know). There were several swing losses this month which caused sizable losses for the portfolios.

Looking at the equity curves for each system, no individual system looks in bad shape, but what has happened is that almost all the swing systems had losses/drawdowns at the same time. I am working on portfolio position sizing so that we have better risk control going forward. Also, Bank of Japan’s surprise QE announcement today may impact FedSwing – I am researching adjustments for QE from BOJ and ECB and/or trend/risk filters to handle monetary policy conditions we have never seen before.