Revised Pricing for multiple systems and Panther retired
I have revised the pricing for multiple systems/portfolios to provide a discount for leasing multiple systems. I did this to reduce the impact of lease fees on your overall performance. The discounts for 3 month and 6 month subscriptions also apply providing additional lowering of fees.
To see the new pricing click here. If you want to switch to the new pricing, please subscribe and I will cancel and refund your current subscription. As always, once you subscribe you have that price for life.
When you go to the website, you will see some additional systems and portfolios. I have released new swing systems and portfolios. I am creating another blog post to give you even more information than is on the website, but feel free to check them out now. I think you will really like the portfolios that combine the swing and intraday systems (I do)!
I have retired Panther. This is due to its vast underperformance. I will review it periodically to see if it recovers, but I think it is prudent to remove it.
Systems previously sold out now available
Many systems have been sold out, which means the maximum number of subscribers had been reached (the number of subscribers is limited to control slippage). During the first quarter of 2011 there was a losing period with many systems exceeding their previous maximum historical drawdown. Enough subscriptions were cancelled during this period that those systems are no longer sold out.
For those that like to start trading a system during a drawdown, right now may be an excellent time to start. When the maximum number of subscribers has been reached for each system again, the system will be sold out and closed to additional subscriptions.
I have updated the website and portfolio suggestions to incorporate all available systems.
Updated systems based on revised filtering
I have done extensive testing with regards to the filtering mechanism used for these systems. This testing included looking at multiple stock indices and index futures going back to as far as 1983, and I removed 2008 trades since that was an outlier year. Based on this testing, I have altered part of the filtering criteria to be what I believe is better in tune with stock market behavior (at least that is what historical testing shows). These updated systems will go into effect starting Monday (3/21/11).
I am showing results from 1/1/04 to 3/18/11 to give you more data than just the past 5 years (liquidity was low before mid-2003 so I started with 1/1/04). The “Old” reports include using previous updates for the entire backtest period and the “Updated” reports use the current update for the entire backtest period to give you the best comparison of this update (to see comparison results of previous updates, look at older posts in this blog under “Articles / Announcements”).
Hypothetical performance reports are shown below. They include $50 roundtrip for commission and slippage. They are all based on a $15,000 account (which is different than the amount I have used in the past for many of the systems). Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results (see disclaimers). Reports must be viewed with Internet Explorer.
Bobcat I (Old) Bobcat I (Updated)
Bobcat II (Old) Bobcat II (Updated)
Cougar Alt (Old) Cougar Alt (Updated)
Jaguar Alt (Old) Jaguar Alt (Updated)
Leopard (Old) Leopard (Updated)
Leopard Alt (Old) Leopard Alt (Updated)
Lion II (Old) Lion II (Updated)
Lion II Alt (Old) Lion II Alt (Updated)
An email about recent results
A client emailed me some questions about the changes I’ve made to some of the systems and their recent results. I thought the email had some good questions (& answers) and might be beneficial to share them. The email was from last Friday (2/25). Here it is:
Bobcat and Cougar were improved last fall, and performance still suffered in Jan. What happened there?
> January was just a choppy month intraday. I doubt many (if any) trend type daytrading systems for the stock indices did well that month. Bobcat didn’t do too bad, especially considering how choppy the market was.
Jaguar and Leopard were improved a couple of weeks ago. Does that account for the recent good performance?
> Actually no. The update made for Jaguar hasn’t affected any trades so far (it only comes into play in very low volatility). One of the updates for Leopard (for very low volatility) hasn’t affected any trades so far, and the addition I made to it (increase number of trades) has had almost no effect so far – but it’s only been a couple weeks. The recent good performance is due to increased volatility (increased movement intraday).
As I look back over the charts of your systems, 2008’s major volatility accounted for a lot of the gains. Otherwise we’ve had short bursts of profit with long flat spots. Do you think the improvements will produce a steadier uptrending chart?
> Because of 2008’s large volatility, I now test all systems with 2008 trades removed. I do run the trades for 2008 during a final check just to make sure it does okay. I’ve been thinking about doing a blog post showing performance results with 2008 trades removed. Although profits are typically cut in half, the equity curve is actually smoother. And yes, I do think the improvements will produce a steadier uptrending equity curve (that’s certainly the goal at least!).
Anything else you can comment on?
> The main thing that negatively impacts the trading results for these systems is a quiet market. That is what happened in 2009 and in January this year. In 2009 I made an improvement to the systems I had then (and when I created Lion II) and used what I learned in developing the newer systems. After the poor results the first half of January, I analyzed again those quiet periods and made adjustments to help protect us when we have quiet markets again. Of course, only the future will tell if my adjustments made an improvement or not.
It is possible the markets could get quiet again….if they do then my systems will probably flat-line and/or enter a prolonged drawdown. That is just the nature of the game – you never know when a good trend day like today [2/25] will come along, so you just have to trade them all and ride out the choppy times (which is a majority of the time unfortunately!). For example, 2011 got off to a very bad start, yet Lion II and Tiger are making new all-time equity highs already (and Bobcat II is very close).
Hope all that info helps!
gary
Updated Jaguar and Leopard
The code for Jaguar, Jaguar Alt, Leopard and Leopard Alt has been updated. An improvement has been made to each system to better handle low-volatility choppy markets (like early January this year and pre-2006) while continuing to take the same trades it always has during average and high-volatility periods. Leopard and Leopard Alt also had an additional modification to increase the number of trades and profit. The updated code went into effect starting today (February 14). To see results of both the original code and the updated versions, you can go to the website page for each system and you will find links to performance reports for both versions. For your convenience, I have posted the links below (the reports must be opened in Internet Explorer):
Jaguar (original) Jaguar (updated)
Jaguar Alt (original) Jaguar Alt (updated)
Updated Bobcat I and Bobcat II Systems
I have made some updates to the Bobcat I and Bobcat II systems. The changes went into effect yesterday December 1st. To see results of both the original code and the updated versions, please go to the website page for each system and you will find links to performance reports for both versions. For your convenience, I have posted the links below (the reports must be opened in Internet Explorer):
Leopard Alt Sold Out
Leopard Alt is sold out. The portfolios on the website will be updated after the end of the month using only systems that are currently available for new subscriptions.
Leopard Alt to be Sold Out
The last day new subscriptions will be available for Leopard Alt is next Friday, November 26. I reserve the right to stop new subscriptions before that date if necessary to control the number of contracts being traded.
Updated Cougar and Panther Systems
I have made some updates to the Cougar, Cougar Alt and Panther systems. The changes went into effect yesterday November 1st. To see results of both the original code and the updated versions, please go to the website page for each system and you will find links to performance reports for both versions. For your convenience, I have posted the links below:
Cougar (original) Cougar (updated)
Lion II Alt sold out
Lion II Alt is now sold out. The Wildcat Portfolios on the website have been updated to include only the systems that are currently available.